Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 73359.942965 77544.044240 81732.054171 86235.421510 90937.824404 95700.073253 100884.383581
2025-03-30 66864.591610 73282.413511 79890.681205 87193.861124 95028.989443 103172.607635 112266.906885
2025-04-06 61719.719384 69625.534971 77950.780044 87351.210001 97650.122272 108569.795695 121002.416394
2025-04-13 57593.476270 66578.683467 76221.202132 87305.897834 99662.521200 112979.495742 128381.902290
2025-04-20 55038.769678 64981.913980 75827.199982 88486.454780 102806.870030 118453.213166 136788.705871
2025-04-27 52885.018182 63638.447507 75539.958329 89622.733318 105761.964109 123609.650077 144766.463391
2025-05-04 50686.543562 62084.861675 74872.347077 90195.117146 107966.264410 127836.317697 151637.433028
2025-05-11 48435.021659 60334.793410 73857.216943 90253.590479 109483.369894 131205.860337 157478.450646
2025-05-18 46520.873266 58875.870552 73085.491633 90506.365903 111150.373247 134692.139019 163418.995101
2025-05-25 44711.448265 57450.811731 72271.676525 90633.394472 112606.282691 137887.498194 168994.575391
2025-06-01 43592.730832 56799.511845 72326.625060 91748.052486 115196.397187 142393.148494 176108.750406
2025-06-08 41908.419590 55383.099989 71394.778345 91616.129443 116248.800065 145049.849035 181021.583803
2025-06-15 41051.365871 54969.468801 71672.281959 92954.994092 119093.972825 149882.256492 188598.830016
2025-06-22 40006.335481 54278.395895 71575.202729 93809.918095 121339.938258 154002.464831 195351.046966
2025-06-29 38678.447345 53177.541099 70924.371797 93940.175194 122668.538853 156999.510903 200749.095207
2025-07-06 37345.103743 52019.799245 70157.194089 93883.886674 123733.771339 159655.692165 205727.234446
2025-07-13 36694.756742 51716.332973 70444.730209 95134.075424 126412.941453 164288.461981 213141.174861
2025-07-20 36064.444633 51411.758673 70708.866293 96338.552729 129028.625192 168849.742977 220491.632408
2025-07-27 35208.132077 50777.346027 70522.249415 96945.342169 130877.347977 172459.677840 226679.819799
2025-08-03 34163.305070 49856.832177 69933.786418 97007.316215 132013.983324 175172.590371 231756.168158
2025-08-10 33257.077159 49092.703985 69522.670396 97275.307363 133396.732567 178186.776897 237215.511817
2025-08-17 32340.171785 48284.694077 69027.416459 97409.980588 134591.044980 180956.209540 242372.730162
2025-08-24 31885.016129 48092.733879 69335.813889 98591.639936 137137.785067 185446.641688 249726.790835